This week’s report that the civilian death rates in Afghanistan have fallen for the first time in five years comes as welcome news to NATO, whose combat forces are due to leave the country in 2014.
The UN, via its special envoy to Afghanistan Jan Kubis, revealed that there had been a staggering 20% decline in the number of civilian deaths in comparison with the period of January through to April of the past year. Mr Kubis attributed this statistic to several factors which include the fact that there has been less fighting in the first four months of this year as well as the laudable increased efforts being exerted by pro-government and international military forces to prevent civilian casualties.
In this vein, Mr Kubis identified a “very clear desire” by international forces to prevent civilian casualties. Mr Kubis added: “Definitely, I see a much stronger effort to address this problem on their side, the pro-government forces and on the side of ISAF (the International Security Assistance Force).”
The news of the reduction in civilian deaths was unexpected to say the least. Recent figures released in relation to Afghan civilian death rates last year indicated that civilian death rates rose by five per cent from figures recorded in 2010. In 2011, it was reported that more than 3,000 civilians lost their lives while around 4,500 people were injured by suicide attacks, roadside bombs and other violence in the country in that period.
The good news was announced against the background of recent strains in Afghan-U.S.A relations. The relationship or whatever was left of it was seemingly destroyed in the aftermath of the Koran-burning fiasco when copies of the Muslim holy book were allegedly mistakenly destroyed by American soldiers, and latterly, the unprovoked killing of unarmed Afghan civilians by a US Army officer. Following these incidents the Taliban and their acolytes promised all by way of revenge attacks, aside the biblical fire and brimstone. Fortunately that hasn’t materialised on the scale one anticipated.
Despite the news, NATO, the USA and pro-government officials will do well to guard against any complacency in their fight against insurgents and the Taliban. For one, some attribute the fall in civilian deaths to the country’s coldest winter for three decades. Secondly, it is well known that fighting significantly drops during the winter period and also reaches its zenith when warmer temperatures emerge. Unfortunately recent reports of suicide bombings and armed attacks against government and NATO targets in the Afghanistan capital of Kabul seem to lend credence to these lines of reasoning.
After 11 years of fighting which has resulted in an estimated 61,000 civilian deaths and about 3,000 NATO casualties, one hopes that this very much welcome news is not a false dawn but a prelude to an eventual cessation of hostilities and in turn a new beginning for this eternally troubled nation.
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