CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC: REBELS FINALLY OVERTHROW GOVERNMENT

Several weeks ago 1worldinternational reported on the ongoing military conflict between government forces and rebels (the Seleka rebel coalition) seeking the overthrow of the President Francois Bozize-led government (Central African Republic: Rebels Closing in on Power published on 4^th January 2013). At the time it appeared as if a compromise peace deal had successfully been brokered which would see President Bozize remaining in power for a further three years and until 2016 when presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the country.

 

If early reports are to be believed, hopes of a working compromise appear have been short-lived following the rebels’ renewed attacks against the government. At the time of writing, the rebels are said to have forced their way into the country’s capital of Bangui with President Bozize fleeing the country in the process. It is as yet unclear as to why the rebels acted in breach of the peace accord agreed in January between themselves and the government although observers couldn’t assert with any confidence at the time that the peace agreement had any chance of lasting its course.

At the time of writing, news emanating from the country is that about nine South African and three Chadian soldiers were also killed by fighters linked to the rebels during the recent upheaval. The South Africans have provided military assistance to the Central African Republic government forces for sometime while Chad and the Central African Republic maintain close ties, not only because of the relationship between President Idriss Deby of the former and President Bozize of the latter since Bozize gained power by way of a coup in 2003, but also because Bozize has relied heavily on the Chadian forces’ military might in dealing with various uprisings which have become commonplace following his assumption of power.

The fall-out from the rebels’ success in the region in which the country is surrounded is expected to be of seismic proportions not least because the country’s neighbours have to some extent propped up President Bozize’s regime and have assisted militarily in attempting to extinguish the rebels. To this extent, President Idriss Deby’s Chad comes to mind. As previous experience indicates, the rebels will be most aware, if they have any sense of course, that the easy part is overthrowing governments whom they perceive to be an obstacle in their path. The difficulty arises in terms of establishing the rule of law and quelling the spates of mass disorder which inevitably follows as an after spill from the turmoil and carnage.

This tinderbox or powder-keg-like state is further exacerbated by the make-up of the rebels who, from the limited information gleaned so far, are essentially a coalition of disparate fighters. One should therefore not expect this marriage of convenience to persist until death do them part. To be fair, the Seleka forces have indicated on several occasions their intention to organise a transition towards democratic elections. Observers of Africa’s fortunes will however assert, at the risk of being labelled pessimists and perpetual killjoys, that we have heard it all before. Nevertheless, the writer will most certainly be happy to be proved wrong.