YEMEN: FATALITIES REPORTED IN STAND-OFF BETWEEN MILITANTS AND SOLDIERS

Yemeni authorities today reported that five soldiers and two al Qaeda-linked insurgents were killed in heavy fighting in the country. The insurgents, members of the militant group Ansar al-Sharia which translates as Partisans of Islamic, launched an attack against the government in 2011. The militants’ offensive achieved minimal success with the capture of two towns located in the southern part of the country.

 

Their march towards the proverbial Promised Land was however abruptly halted by reinvigorated and reenergised government forces, supported by the West, who have now reduced the sum total of the insurgent’s attacks to spasmodic or intermittent occurrences. This week’s offensive was an attempt to flush out the remnants of the militant group, and with the post-mortem of the short-lived battle due shortly, it remains to be seen whether the government’s pronouncements of victory stack up.

The Yemeni forces’ plight has not been helped by another conflict in the North-east of the country in which it is currently engaged, running concurrently with the troubles in the southern part of the country. The latest violence follows Monday’s suicide bombing attack which killed 11 Yemeni soldiers. The West and the U.S in particular has channelled considerable resources, financial and otherwise, in their attempts to forestall the march of the insurgents. The West fears that the insurgent’s success in Yemen will be used as a platform by the militants to launch attacks the world over hence its increased significance in the war against terror.

 

Often described as a failed state, and perhaps rightly so, the country’s instability has led to a power vacuum which in turn has been exploited by various al Qaeda splinter groups, all said to operate under the auspices of the Yemen-headquartered al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). With Yemen being of such strategic importance to both sides, meaning the West and Islamist militants, one therefore wonders whether Afghanistan’s tag as the ‘frontline of the war on terror’ is rather misguided.

KAZAKHSTAN ON THE EDGE FOLLOWING DEADLY CLASHES

Granted, the world’s 9th largest country did not make our ‘2012 countries to watch list'; however Kazakhstan would unfailingly make its way onto the reserve list if yours truly had compiled one.

On 16th December 2011 security forces in the western city of Zhanaozen are reported to have opened fire on an unarmed group of demonstrators consisting largely of striking oil workers. The violence left 16 dead and over 100 injured. In addition, buildings and public infrastructure were also said to have been destroyed during the disturbance. It is reported that the protests were led by oil workers in Zhanaozen who had been on strike since May 2011 demanding favourable pay and working conditions. The protests of 16th December coincided with the country’s 20th anniversary of its independence and have been described as the worst civil disturbance in its 20 odd years as an independent nation. The clashes have led observers to conclude that this may be the catalyst for further mass disturbances in the coming weeks, especially with parliamentary and local elections scheduled to take place later this month.

The indiscriminate shooting of unarmed protestors was initially denied by the security forces and instead blamed on criminal gangs and “hooligan elements” until footage of the shooting of the unarmed demonstrators appeared on the internet. As a result, the office of the Prosecutor-General last week opened a criminal inquiry into the use of weapons by police following the disturbance. Some police officers have also been charged for their part in the clashes and are said to face 10 years in prison if convicted for the crime of abuse of office. The official spokesman of the Kazakh Prosecutor-General’s office, Nurdaulet Suindikar, confirmed that criminal cases against officers were launched on charges of “abuse of authority and official powers involving the use of weapons or special equipment.” Government officials have also muted the possibility of inviting the United Nations to investigate the clashes.

The clashes have been seen by observers as a blow to the country’s image as Central Asia’s most stable nation. President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his associates have successfully sold this image of the country to the West in the last decade, whilst at the same time, concealing the darker elements of his regime. Luckily for him, the West has not sought to dig deeper into the glossy image of Kazakhstan which we are being sold. Mr Nazarbayev has ruled the country since its independence in 1991 and has presided over an autocratic regime accused of nepotism, corruption, human tights abuse and autocracy. Mr Nazarbayev is currently serving a 4th term as President having won elections in April 2011 which independent observers panned as fraudulent. The ruling party led by Mr Nazarbayev also holds all the seats in both houses of Parliament in the country.

The government’s spin machine has gone into overdrive in its attempts to play down the clashes as a one-off incident. Nevertheless, no amount of spin can gloss over the huge social inequalities in a country blessed with oil resources. The latest clashes have also led human rights groups to call into question the country’s questionable human rights credentials. Human Rights Watch has called on the government to investigate allegations of torture. The organisation has particularly highlighted the recent death of a political detainee from “injuries sustained in police custody”. The government’s crackdown on independent media, internet coverage, mobile phone coverage and social networking in the western region of the country during the clashes has also led to allegations of censorship being laid at the feet of the government. It is also reported that restrictions were also placed on the few journalists who were allowed access to the scene of the clashes.

As was the case in Yemen, a blind eye has conveniently been turned away from the concerns raised by human rights organisations because the country is of strategic importance to the West. The West has invested heavily in the country’s energy industry and Kazakhstan has assisted immensely in transporting NATO supplies to Afghanistan. Its cooperation with the West appears to be a form of payment in return for buying the silence of Western leaders who, by their actions or lack of, send the erroneous message to despots that the West will not take them to task on human rights standards so long as they happen to be of use to us.

RENEWED CLASHES IN YEMEN LEAD TO FEARS OF FURTHER MIDDLE EAST INSTABILITY

The recent renewal of hostilities between forces loyal to the President of Yemen, Mr Ali Abdullah Saleh and demonstrators protesting against the government have led to fears of further instability in this already fragile region of the world. The clashes on 24th and 25th December led to the deaths of 9 people and saw dozens injured by government security forces who opened fire on demonstrators in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa. The government attacks were said to have been led by military units overseen by the nephew and son of Mr Saleh. The recent deaths add to the unofficial figures of hundreds and thousands of people who have been killed and injured respectively in clashes in the major cities of Sanaa, Taiz and Aden since protests began in January 2011.


History

The first rays of the Arab spring hit Yemen on 27th January 2011 when protesters took to the streets and other cities in the Southern cities of the country demanding an end to President Saleh’s 33 year reign. The interceding months have seen a state of emergency been imposed in the country and the defection of senior army officials. In April, President Saleh was injured in an attack on his presidential compound forcing him to leave the country temporarily to seek treatment in Saudi Arabia.


The Deal

Following Mr Saleh’s return to the country on 23rd September 2011, the 6 Arab countries which make up the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and the UN brokered a deal in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia which amongst others entailed that Mr Saleh was to relinquish power 3 months after agreeing the deal. The agreement was signed on 23rd November 2011.


Terms of the Deal

• Vice-President, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi will form a power-sharing government within 14 days of signature of the deal.
• The opposition coalition will nominate a Prime Minister.
• The Vice-President will negotiate the demilitarisation of the city of Sanaa.
• President Saleh will relinquish full control in early February 2012, 90 days after signing the deal.
• The Vice-President will be elected President and oversee constitutional and parliamentary reforms.
• President Saleh and his allies will have immunity from prosecution.


Latest Clashes

The deal was expected to usher in a period of stability following the year-long episode of skirmishes and violence which has seen hundreds killed. The latest clashes appear to have resulted from fears that President Saleh will renege on the agreement to step down from power as was the case in June 2011. The protesters have also demanded that the acting leader and the country’s former Vice-President, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, who is seen as the puppet of the outgoing leader, should resign. The protesters have also voiced concerns about the fact that the agreement, the terms of which have been covered above, entitles Mr Saleh to immunity from prosecution. The protesters have called for the immunity to be revoked.


Saleh’s vows to leave

In the aftermath of the latest clashes, Mr Saleh has been forced to publicly deny any intentions of reneging on the deal. Mr Saleh stated: “I will go to the USA not for treatment, because I’m fine, but to get away from attention, cameras, and allow the unity government to prepare properly for elections”. He added: “I’ll be there for several days, but I’ll return because I won’t leave my people and comrades who have been steadfast for 11 months,” he said. “I’ll withdraw from political work and go into the street as part of the opposition.” Mr Saleh also urged the country’s neighbours to assist Yemenis in establishing law and order in the country. Mr Saleh continued: “An unstable Yemen means an unstable region. So protect the security, unity and stability of Yemen. Neighbour states, its security is yours.”


Fears of civil strife

The latest skirmishes are the last thing the Arab world’s poorest nation needs at this time, not least because it is bedevilled with other problems relating to poverty, high unemployment rates, soaring food prices, oil and water scarcity issues. Added to these is sectarian violence between fighters within the Shia and Sunni communities and attacks against the government by fighters linked to al-Qaeda. Issues are also complicated by a rebellion by militants from the southern part of the country seeking the reestablishment of their own nation which existed pre-unification in 1990.


Sound-off

Yemen is of strategic importance for several reasons, namely its geographical proximity to the gulf’s major oil fields and major shipping lanes in the Arabian and Red seas. It has also been instrumental in providing a base in the west’s fight against al-Qaeda. Recent clashes will not only affect these but will also lead to a flood of refugees and further instability in a region still recovering from the aftershocks caused by the Arab world’s recent awakening. Mr Saleh’s planned February/March 2012 exit is to be watched closely. Needless to say, the seed of political impasse planted by Mr Saleh and his affiliates will swiftly germinate into civil war if he fails to follow through on his promise to leave as agreed.