The last few months have seen numerous developments take place in the West African country of Mali. So numerous have these changes been that news outlets have struggled to keep apace with the rapidly transcending circumstances. This week, Algeria, said to be the only obstacle to an ECOWAS-led military intervention in Mali, approved an intervention, the consequences of which have the potential to spill into its territory.
ECOWAS’s (The Economic Community of West African States) aim, by way of the intended action is to wrestle back control from al Qaeda-backed militants of the northern part of the country which for several months, has been outside the control of the country’s government. Some reports now claim that Tuareg rebels, working in tandem with al Qaeda-supported Islamist militants now control two thirds of the country since army generals instigated a coup in March of this year.
Algeria’s agreement hasn’t been achieved without the usual diplomatic arm twisting. In this case, its colonial father France has been at the forefront of efforts to acquire Algeria’s approval prior to the intended intervention. It would now appear that France has been able to assuage the fears of Algeria, a country with growing influence in the region, of fears that the conflict would spill into its territory and further fears over the likely duration of the conflict. This latest development follows the recent U.N. Security Council resolution whose central proposal was its urging of African states and the United Nations for the production of an intervention plan in Mali.
In the same week the African Union (AU) lifted its suspension of Mali which was imposed on the country following the aforementioned coup d’etat which unseated President Amadou Toumani Toure earlier on in the year. The country’s Foreign Minister Tieman Coulibaly attributed the lifting of the sanctions to Mali’s “respect of signed agreements and the creation of a government of national union conforming to the demands of the international community.” One of the conditions for the intervention is rumoured to be that elections would have to be held within 12 months after the return to ‘constitutional order’.
It is worthwhile noting that international consensus has been achieved with regard to how the Malian situation should be addressed. Germany, by way of its Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle averred in the past week that the European Union must assist with the African-led Mali mission. France’s position is visibly clear having seized the reins in the drafting of an intervention centred U.N. resolution and selling the idea of intervention to a very reluctant Algeria.
The U.S., via its Defence Secretary Leon Panetta, highlighted the gains made by al Qaeda which has successfully exploited the power vacuum in the region and the need for the international community to work hand in hand in order to deal with the threats. Panetta stated: “We need to work with the nations in the region. They all agree that we are facing the same threat there from AQIM (said to be al Qaeda’s branch in North Africa). He continued: “Our goal right now is to try to do everything we can to bring those countries together in a common effort to go after AQIM.”
Even if the AU can produce the detailed plan for intervention requested by the U.N. Security Council within six weeks of October 12, uncertainty still pervades as to whether military action will commence in the immediate aftermath or after a further, and as yet unknown, time limit has elapsed. If last week’s statements by the Chairwoman of the AU, Nkosazana Dlamina-Zuma, are to be believed then the former might well be the case. To this end, Dlamina-Zuma stated, in the course of interviews with global news outlets: “We are working to finalise the joint planning for the early deployment of an African-led international military force to help Mali recover the occupied territories in the North.” At the same time she revealed that the AU was set to “leave the door of dialogue open to those Malian rebel groups willing to negotiate.”
Realists will acknowledge that the chances of resolution of the conflict at this late stage by way of dialogue are slim at best and negligible at worst. The AU and UN must pay heed to the fact that the slightest signs of failure of this most surreptitious of plans will inevitably lead to scribes reaching for their pens in order to draw parallels between the present scenario and Afghanistan.
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