GUINEA: FIGHTING AND RIOTING ENGULF ANOTHER WEST AFRICAN STATE

The West African country of Guinea appears to have been struck by the curse which has afflicted its West African neighbours of late by succumbing to the political crises which has so far threatened to rip the region apart from itself. Protesters, apparently aping the Arab Spring protests, have taken to the streets over the last couple of days clamouring for the sort of change to which the region has become unfamiliar of late.

 

With the attention of regional diplomats being trained on disturbances afflicting neighbouring Chad, Mali and recently the Ivory Coast, the last thing the regional watchdog ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States) envisaged at this most inopportune of times was the upheaval which has emanated from Guinea and which most certainly will have the effect of encumbering its already stretched to the limit resources.

 

The protests, which started several days ago, is said to have been the result of President Alpha Conde’s failure to call for elections before the 3^rd March 2013 deadline which had been set for that purpose and on which most people had relied. The said elections would have taken place on 12^th May 2013. Unfortunately the waters are further muddied by the usual powder keg concoction of ethnic rivalries which when mixed with politics inevitably results in the combustion with which observers of Africa’s fortunes have become too familiar. In this vein, the protests are of added significance not least because it has now transcended mere political disagreements and appear to be a camouflage for the continued feuding between two of the country’s largest ethnic groups, the Malinke and the Peul, with the latter predominantly forming the opposition and the former currently comprising the bulk of the government’s support.
 

At the time of writing, it is reported that at least a dozen people had been killed and over a hundred had suffered injuries following the escalation of the disturbance. At least one of those reported to have lost their lives and several of the injured were said to have been caught up in a round of protests which then led to the country’s security officials opening fire on an unarmed group of protestors. Worryingly the protests, which started in the capital city of Conakry, is now said to have spread to towns located as far as over 200 miles from the epicentre of the unrest. The fact that legitimate protests have apparently been hijacked by miscreants, as has at times been reported on occasions on which there are anti-government protests, cannot be ignored.

 

The leading opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo has blamed the security forces, and by implication, the President for failing to exercise control over them and for attempting to muzzle the voices of protests through intimidation. Mr Diallo asserted: “The President of the Republic has a crucial responsibility to create peace. He needs to agree to listen to others, and to respect his adversaries.” Although there appears to be no end in sight to the rapidly spreading wave of violence, the rioters will best be advised to pause for thought and gaze at their surroundings, comprising landscapes which have been blighted by the scourge of ethnic violence and bringing along with it destruction which will in turn inevitably result in a passage of time to be forever referred to as ‘the lost decades’. Perhaps a look across the horizon and onto neighbouring West African States may well help steer the fortunes of Guinea away from the quagmire into which it stares at the present moment.

MALI: ALGERIA’S AGREEMENT PAVES THE WAY FOR MILITARY INTERVENTION

The last few months have seen numerous developments take place in the West African country of Mali. So numerous have these changes been that news outlets have struggled to keep apace with the rapidly transcending circumstances. This week, Algeria, said to be the only obstacle to an ECOWAS-led military intervention in Mali, approved an intervention, the consequences of which have the potential to spill into its territory.


ECOWAS’s (The Economic Community of West African States) aim, by way of the intended action is to wrestle back control from al Qaeda-backed militants of the northern part of the country which for several months, has been outside the control of the country’s government. Some reports now claim that Tuareg rebels, working in tandem with al Qaeda-supported Islamist militants now control two thirds of the country since army generals instigated a coup in March of this year.


Algeria’s agreement hasn’t been achieved without the usual diplomatic arm twisting. In this case, its colonial father France has been at the forefront of efforts to acquire Algeria’s approval prior to the intended intervention. It would now appear that France has been able to assuage the fears of Algeria, a country with growing influence in the region, of fears that the conflict would spill into its territory and further fears over the likely duration of the conflict. This latest development follows the recent U.N. Security Council resolution whose central proposal was its urging of African states and the United Nations for the production of an intervention plan in Mali.


In the same week the African Union (AU) lifted its suspension of Mali which was imposed on the country following the aforementioned coup d’etat which unseated President Amadou Toumani Toure earlier on in the year. The country’s Foreign Minister Tieman Coulibaly attributed the lifting of the sanctions to Mali’s “respect of signed agreements and the creation of a government of national union conforming to the demands of the international community.” One of the conditions for the intervention is rumoured to be that elections would have to be held within 12 months after the return to ‘constitutional order’.


It is worthwhile noting that international consensus has been achieved with regard to how the Malian situation should be addressed. Germany, by way of its Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle averred in the past week that the European Union must assist with the African-led Mali mission. France’s position is visibly clear having seized the reins in the drafting of an intervention centred U.N. resolution and selling the idea of intervention to a very reluctant Algeria.


The U.S., via its Defence Secretary Leon Panetta, highlighted the gains made by al Qaeda which has successfully exploited the power vacuum in the region and the need for the international community to work hand in hand in order to deal with the threats. Panetta stated: “We need to work with the nations in the region. They all agree that we are facing the same threat there from AQIM (said to be al Qaeda’s branch in North Africa). He continued: “Our goal right now is to try to do everything we can to bring those countries together in a common effort to go after AQIM.”


Even if the AU can produce the detailed plan for intervention requested by the U.N. Security Council within six weeks of October 12, uncertainty still pervades as to whether military action will commence in the immediate aftermath or after a further, and as yet unknown, time limit has elapsed. If last week’s statements by the Chairwoman of the AU, Nkosazana Dlamina-Zuma, are to be believed then the former might well be the case. To this end, Dlamina-Zuma stated, in the course of interviews with global news outlets: “We are working to finalise the joint planning for the early deployment of an African-led international military force to help Mali recover the occupied territories in the North.” At the same time she revealed that the AU was set to “leave the door of dialogue open to those Malian rebel groups willing to negotiate.”


Realists will acknowledge that the chances of resolution of the conflict at this late stage by way of dialogue are slim at best and negligible at worst. The AU and UN must pay heed to the fact that the slightest signs of failure of this most surreptitious of plans will inevitably lead to scribes reaching for their pens in order to draw parallels between the present scenario and Afghanistan.

MALI: U.N. PONDERS MALI GOVERNMENT’S REQUEST FOR MILITARY INTERVENTION

Last week’s news that the West African country has called on the United Nations (U.N.) to intervene militarily in order to reclaim parts of the country currently controlled by Islamist militants, though welcome, raised several eyebrows and subsequently questions amongst followers of the country’s recent fortunes. The most vital of the questions which have arisen are whether the call for intervention has come too late and secondly, whether the said intervention will achieve its desired aims if approved by the UN.


Recent History

Prior to the unfolding of the events of March of this year, Mali had been hailed by observers as one of the few democratic success stories in Africa. In March of this year however, and borrowing from the Nigerian author Chinua Achebe’s seminal masterpiece, things fell apart when a gang of soldiers initiated a coup d’etat which saw to the overthrow of the nation’s President. A combination of forces, namely Tuareg rebels who have always had an axe to grind with the government following decades of claims of marginalisation, together with various groups of Islamist militants acting jointly and severally launched an operation against the establishment which has resulted in the Northern region of the country being fully under their control. It is also reported that people in that region of the country are now subjected to Sharia law, which is the strictest form of Islam.


Call for Intervention

The call for intervention was said to have been made by way of a letter sent by the Malian government to the U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, the contents of which were revealed by the French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius. In calling for a U.N. resolution under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, under which the U.N. can authorise military interventions, the Malian government stated that terrorists, drug dealers and criminals currently occupy areas of the country and as such it needed the support of an international force “to help the Malian army to reconquer the occupied areas of northern Mali.”

Mali’s request for intervention was met with a rather familiar obstacle in a divided United Nations. At a special summit arranged by the U.N. to address all things Mali-related and held against the background of the recent U.N. General Assembly, the Malian Prime Minister Cheick Modibo Diarra stated: “There is an urgency to act to end the suffering of the people of Mali and to prevent a similar situation that would be even more complicated in the Sahel and the rest of the world.” Diarra’s impassioned plea for assistance was supported by the country’s Colonial Father, France who’s President Francoise Hollande pledged his country’s support to the idea of a potential military action.



Reservations to Calls for Intervention

Whilst France had no reservations in throwing its hat in the ring in support of military intervention, the reverse was the case with the US who appear to be exhibiting more restraint than they have been associated with in recent times, perhaps an indication of their reduced influence in the global politics arena. Hilary Clinton, the country’s Secretary of State insisted that a legitimate government had to be put in place before such an action could be considered. In respect of what can only be described as the multi-dimensional nature of the problems currently facing Mali, Clinton stated: “This is not only a humanitarian crisis; it is a power keg that the international community cannot afford to ignore.” She continued “in the end, only a democratically elected government will have the legitimacy to achieve a negotiated political settlement in northern Mali, end the rebellion and restore the rule of law.”

Clinton’s stance has also received support from the U.N. Secretary General who has also raised reservations regarding the topic of military intervention on the ground that it may further exacerbate the already critical humanitarian crises in the region.


The Future

Although the American call for caution in respect of the potential for military action is comprehended, a legitimate question which then arises is how democratic elections can be held in a country where a sizeable area is controlled by Islamist militants who abhor the concept of democracy and accordingly the principles and ideals associated with it. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly clearer by the day that diplomacy may be futile in salvaging the situation. The July 5 Security Council sanctioned ECOWAS (The Economic Community of West African States) mission which was mandated to apply political means to resolve the conflict hardly made any notable gains despite its credible efforts. Its failure was no doubt significantly handicapped by the difficulty in identifying all the warring factions in order to commence any form of effective negotiations as Al-Qaeda is only but one of the several Islamist militant groups said to be operating in the northern region of Mali.


Sound-off

Whilst the U.N.’s sounds of caution are laudable its prevarication on the same subject has already contributed to the humanitarian crises facing the region and clearly lessons have not been learnt. A rational move at this point would be the authorisation of ECOWAS troops – who have indicated its preparedness to send troops at short notice – in order to quell the flames emanating from the nation’s combustion. Sooner rather than later the U.N.’s leadership will be forced to make the decision it has attempted to circumvent for some time which in sum amounts to whether the benefits of military intervention outweigh the potential of a worsening of the humanitarian crises which has resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of innocent Malians.

MALAWI: WHAT NEXT FOR ONE OF AFRICA’S YOUNGEST DEMOCRACIES

Late last week one of the world’s most open secrets was finally laid bare as the Malawian authorities confirmed that the country’s President, Bingu wa Mutharika, 78, was dead. The confirmation put to rest rumours which had gathered momentum in the intervening period that the President had succumbed to a cardiac arrest suffered recently. The delay in announcing the death gave rise to fears of political impasse and dispute in the background regarding the potential successor to the position of President.

One might say that whatever disputes being aired out in the political background were finally resolved when Vice-President, Joyce Banda, was sworn in as President in accordance with the country’s constitution. Joyce Banda thus becomes the country’s first female leader since it gained independence in 1964 and southern Africa’s first female leader.

Needless to say the challenges which President Banda faces, as is also the case with many other African countries or countries in the developing world, are pretty enormous to say the least. The small matters of chronic poverty, poor standards of health and education, countering the HIV/AIDS epidemic amongst numerous others await the new President.

The new President will do well to re-engage with the West as her predecessor seemed to have alienated foreign donors who had managed to keep the country’s fragile economy afloat. Observers will recall that under President Mutharika’s watch, the UK’s representative to the country was expelled after leaked diplomatic cables revealed the West’s concerns about the late President’s autocratic behaviour. Earlier in the year the late President also famously commanded, for want of a better word, the foreign donors to “go to hell”.

One doubts that a clairvoyant, fortune teller or a crystal gazing ball may be able to accurately predict the country’s future in the coming days, weeks, months and even years. What is however known is that the late President’s allies are uncomfortable with the idea of the Vice-President, whom the late President never saw eye to eye with, replacing him. One recalls that both predecessor and successor had a most public falling out over the predecessor’s plans for his brother, also the country’s Foreign Minister, to run as the ruling party’s Presidential candidate in elections planned for 2014.

These political rifts will need to heal and common ground between political opponents will need to be found if any progress is to be made in the interim. The bloodless transition is nevertheless commendable considering the still unfolding situation in Mali and other parts of the continent. As is always the case, time will tell whether this young democracy will see middle, and if lucky, maybe old age.

MALI: UN CONCERNS OVER AFRICA'S POTENTIAL NEWEST CIVIL WAR

“The UN Secretary-General is deeply concerned about fighting between Tuareg rebel groups and government forces in northern Mali…he is especially troubled by the large-scale humanitarian consequences of the crisis, including civilian casualties and thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) with many more seeking refuge in neighbouring countries, thus aggravating an already dire humanitarian situation throughout the Sahel region.” - Spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on the Mali conflict


Last week the UN launched an appeal for $35.6 million in its response to the worsening humanitarian crisis in the northern part of the West African country of Mali. The conflict between government forces and Tuareg rebel groups has resulted in the deaths of dozens and the displacement, within and outside the country, of nearly 130,000 people. The majority of the displaced people are said to have fled to neighbouring Mauritania, Niger and Burkina Faso.


The recent clashes, which began on 17th January has reignited the decades-long conflict between the Malian government and the Mouvement National de Liberation de l’Azawad (MNLA) which was temporarily brought to an end via the 2009 peace deal signed by both parties. The nomadic Tuareg seek greater autonomy from the Malian government coupled with demands linked to land, cultural and linguistic rights. The MNLA’s official mission statement proffers that the group’s aims include freeing “the Azawadan people from the illegal occupation of Azawadan territory held by Mali” and further “to hold a referendum to determine if Azawadians want a separate independent republic”.


The Malian government have so far repeatedly claimed that the rebels are al-Qaeda collaborators or in essence, the West African branch of the organisation. It is also widely claimed by media agencies that the MNLA rebels comprise of returning fighters who fought alongside Libya’s now dethroned Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. The government itself have hardly covered themselves in glory. It has strongly been accused by NGO’s and media outlets that it has deliberately targeted and shelled civilian areas populated by the Tuareg and also of not doing enough to protect the Tuareg peoples.


Amnesty International has been particularly scathing in asserting that both the MNLA and the Malian army have failed to protect civilians not involved in the conflict as stated in the Geneva Convention. Gaetan Mootoo, the organisation’s researcher on West Africa said last week: “It is the civilian population who are bearing the brunt of this indiscriminate bombing. In addition to human casualties the attacks have killed dozens of cattle, camels and goats which the nomad Tuareg population rely on … these bombings violate international humanitarian law and the government must stop them immediately”.


The West African economic bloc, together with the USA and France has called for an end to the violence. The UN in particular has called on the rebels to immediately cease its attacks on civilians and government forces and rather to engage in dialogue with the Malian government to resolve their grievances. What is concerning is the humanitarian consequence of the civil strife and the refugee crisis spawn as a result hence the UN’s calls for funds. Adrian Edwards, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) spokesperson, said last week that the funds “will be used by UNHCR to provide emergency assistance to the displaced in Mali and neighbouring countries”.


Unfortunately the resumption of hostilities detracts attention from the famine and hunger in the neighbouring Sahel region of Africa and the longer the conflict persists, the more likely it is that preventable deaths caused by famine will become commonplace. If the Malian government is to avoid fresh bloodshed it needs to act now by swallowing its pride and engaging the rebels in roundtable talks as opposed to the armed engagement currently being favoured by both sides. Unfortunately the losers of this sad debacle will be the civilian non-actors in the violence and the Tuareg populace who ironically have borne the greatest losses since fighters representing the tribe took up arms against the Malian government.