GUINEA: FIGHTING AND RIOTING ENGULF ANOTHER WEST AFRICAN STATE

The West African country of Guinea appears to have been struck by the curse which has afflicted its West African neighbours of late by succumbing to the political crises which has so far threatened to rip the region apart from itself. Protesters, apparently aping the Arab Spring protests, have taken to the streets over the last couple of days clamouring for the sort of change to which the region has become unfamiliar of late.

 

With the attention of regional diplomats being trained on disturbances afflicting neighbouring Chad, Mali and recently the Ivory Coast, the last thing the regional watchdog ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States) envisaged at this most inopportune of times was the upheaval which has emanated from Guinea and which most certainly will have the effect of encumbering its already stretched to the limit resources.

 

The protests, which started several days ago, is said to have been the result of President Alpha Conde’s failure to call for elections before the 3^rd March 2013 deadline which had been set for that purpose and on which most people had relied. The said elections would have taken place on 12^th May 2013. Unfortunately the waters are further muddied by the usual powder keg concoction of ethnic rivalries which when mixed with politics inevitably results in the combustion with which observers of Africa’s fortunes have become too familiar. In this vein, the protests are of added significance not least because it has now transcended mere political disagreements and appear to be a camouflage for the continued feuding between two of the country’s largest ethnic groups, the Malinke and the Peul, with the latter predominantly forming the opposition and the former currently comprising the bulk of the government’s support.
 

At the time of writing, it is reported that at least a dozen people had been killed and over a hundred had suffered injuries following the escalation of the disturbance. At least one of those reported to have lost their lives and several of the injured were said to have been caught up in a round of protests which then led to the country’s security officials opening fire on an unarmed group of protestors. Worryingly the protests, which started in the capital city of Conakry, is now said to have spread to towns located as far as over 200 miles from the epicentre of the unrest. The fact that legitimate protests have apparently been hijacked by miscreants, as has at times been reported on occasions on which there are anti-government protests, cannot be ignored.

 

The leading opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo has blamed the security forces, and by implication, the President for failing to exercise control over them and for attempting to muzzle the voices of protests through intimidation. Mr Diallo asserted: “The President of the Republic has a crucial responsibility to create peace. He needs to agree to listen to others, and to respect his adversaries.” Although there appears to be no end in sight to the rapidly spreading wave of violence, the rioters will best be advised to pause for thought and gaze at their surroundings, comprising landscapes which have been blighted by the scourge of ethnic violence and bringing along with it destruction which will in turn inevitably result in a passage of time to be forever referred to as ‘the lost decades’. Perhaps a look across the horizon and onto neighbouring West African States may well help steer the fortunes of Guinea away from the quagmire into which it stares at the present moment.

AZERBAIJAN: ARAB SPRING’S TENTACLES EXTEND WESTWARDS

 

Many, for good reason, wondered whether the Arabian revolution would extend across jurisdictions, or would sadly be confined within the borders of the Arab world. Alas, the questions circumventing the minds of the inquisitive, but as yet unasked, have now been answered by the unfolding of recent events in the former Soviet republic.

The country’s sleepy town of Ismailli was the scene of unprecedented violence and rioting which resulted in the destruction of public amenities, buildings and infrastructure. As was the case in the Arab world, the disturbance appears to stem from discontent about the government whom locals have lost faith in. Many feel that the country’s wealth, owing to the abundance of natural gas resources, has failed to filter down to the man on the street, but rather, remains in the hands of a few – the few being people in government or with links to the establishment. Widening inequality, poverty, unemployment and the worsening economic situation, seemingly with no end in sight, hasn’t eased the current state of play. The protesters allegedly called for the resignation of the regional governor, Nizami Alekperov, seemingly attributing the problems to him, presumably as an emanation of the state. Reports emanating from the country indicate that water canons and tear gas were employed by the authorities in order to disperse the riotous crowd.

As has come to be expected from governments in a similar position to that being currently occupied by the Azeris, a senior official was dispatched to extinguish any media-generated speculation to the effect that the Arab Spring is set to claim its next victim. That unwanted task thus fell to Ali Akhmedov, deputy chairman of the Yeni Azerbaijan party which forms the present government. Akhmedov asserted: “I don’t believe that this situation can spread to the other regions as there is no basis for that.” He continued: “There are just some destructive forces inside the country who are interested in the destabilization of the situation, but they are weak.”

Regardless of the government’s attempts to sweep the disturbance under the carpet, the riots, in a country where protests are more or less uncommon, are of significance and probably the biggest threat to the Aliyev dynasty since its assumption of power in the days of the Soviet Union. By way of a fact dissemination exercise, the incumbent is Ilham Aliyev, the son of Heydar Aliyev, who ruled the country for 10 years before being succeeded by his son in 2003. The similarities with the Arab spring don’t end there with reports of further protests being planned by those in support of the Ismailli rioters’ cause with social networking sites such as Facebook, the scourge of totalitarian states and fallen Arab leaders, being used to mobilise protesters.

Unfortunately the Azeri government has in the past shown no hesitation to use force in order to quell public disturbances and one expects the present occasion to be no different, and with elections scheduled for later this year, one anticipates the government to strong arm its people, especially its opponents, into submission. Moreover, Azerbaijan plays a rather strategic and important role in the West’s war on terror and for that reason, the US and its consigliores lack the political will to support any attempts to depose those at the helm of what is essentially the Aliyev personal fiefdom. To be blunt, the Azeri government faces no real threat until the West secures an alternative, as a military base in respect of its Afghanistan operations, to that provided by Azerbaijan. Until then, the West’s attention will remain conveniently diverted away from Azerbaijan’s dictatorial, oppressive and totalitarian regime.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: GOVERNMENT CRACKS DOWN ON PROTESTERS' LEGITIMATE DEMANDS

Amidst the mutterings that the Arab spring was about to claim its latest victim, the ruler of the country’s Sharjah emirate last week moved quickly to calm fears that the country’s forces was wantonly jailing persons responsible for organising the unprecedented recent episodes of protests against the state. Sheikh Sultan bin Mohammed al-Qassimi inferred that the arrest of several individuals over the last couple of weeks was linked to its investigation of “crimes against the security of the state” and added that the state’s forces had a “duty” to protect the country against the individuals involved in the alleged plot.


Background

Over recent weeks several dissidents and protesters have been arrested in a synchronised crackdown against activists in the country. The activists arrested in the crackdown are allegedly linked to the al-Islah (Reform) Islamic group which calls for a stricter observance of Sharia’a law in what is already the most conservative part of the country. About 50 dissidents are reported to have been arrested since last year without recourse to an effective judicial system. Moving swiftly to set an example of the activists and to perhaps dissuade others from joining the perceived revolution the government has stripped some activists of their citizenship while others have been issued summary jail sentences.


Criticism

If the rapidly modernising country thought that stamping down swiftly on voices of protest may prevent attention being drawn to the revolutionaries’ causes they had better have a rethink. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have voiced concern over the treatment of activists. In its statement last week, Amnesty International urged the government to release details of the location of those it had arrested. Joe Stork, Human Rights Watch deputy Middle East director called on the United Kingdom and the US to rein in its ally. Stork stated: “After all their fine words over the past year about standing up for democracy and human rights in the Arab world, the U.S. and the UK have completely lost their voices when it comes to the UAE.”


Campaign of intimidation

The Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch statements follow recent criticisms of the government’s actions by related international organisations. Rupert Colville, the UN human rights spokesman asserted that the government’s actions were effectively a ruse to silence legitimate protests. Colville stated: “It appears that national security is increasingly being used as a pretext to clamp down on peaceful activism, to stifle calls for constitutional reform and on human rights issues such as statelessness.” The highly respected Geneva based International Commission of Jurists (ICJ) whose mission statement includes the implementation of principles which advance human rights have added to the debate. Said Bernabia, the organisation’s Senior Legal Advisor for its Middle East and North Africa Programme stated that the government’s move was “part of a broad campaign of intimidation and harassment by UAE authorities that aims to silence any and all critical voices”. Bernabia called for the crackdown to cease immediately.


Oil wealth

The UAE is made up of seven emirates or states which united to form a federation in 1971. The country’s oil wealth has placed it amongst the world’s fastest growing economies and the standard of living of its people has risen significantly since its discovery of the oil resource. The country is as liberal as they come in comparison with its neighbours. Its allegiance with the major players on the international scene such as the US and UK is testament to its status as one of the leading figures in the Middle East. The country’s overly generous welfare system has enabled it to avoid the disturbances in the region which has led to the toppling of four governments during the Arab spring.


Sound-off

Nevertheless the government appears not to have learnt any lessons from recent events in the Middle East as rather than engaging the public and its opponents in debate about political reforms and civil rights, it has opted to demonise activists as ‘Islamists’ and jail those it deems as threats to its stability. It clearly has not learnt that its attitude may be counterproductive as it stands the risk of galvanising further protests against it as the recently deposed governments of Ben-Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt highlight. The government’s close ties with the US and U.K means that the West’s political will to cause change may not be forthcoming in the immediate future. The country’s rulers will do well to learn some lessons from the past, most notably from events which transpired in neighbouring Egypt whose deposed government’s close ties with the West counted for nothing when the waves of change could no longer be held back by revetments.

SUDAN: THE ARAB SPRING’S LATEST VICTIM?

Protests continued in the North African country of Sudan in the past week leading observers to pronounce that the Arab Spring may be about to claim another victim being the Sudanese Government.

The protests began about two weeks ago following the Government’s imposition of harsh austerity measures which have seen the average man on the street and the most ardent of the government’s supporters raise their voices in protest. The Government’s hands have somewhat been forced by its conflict with neighbouring South Sudan – developments in this regard have been addressed extensively by 1worldinternational – which has resulted in a significant drop in its oil revenue in a country where oil is the main source of revenue.

Both countries have been in a state of ‘semi-war’ over the last few months following a disagreement over oil export fees which Sudan expected to receive from South Sudan for transporting oil via pipeline laid in the Sudan. South Sudan subsequently shut down all oil production which has severely paralysed both countries’ economies since January. In addition, spiralling inflation rates for food and goods have also exacerbated matters in the Sudan and this is expected to worsen in the coming weeks and months. Also, sanctions imposed by the U.S government and corruption have compounded the worsening economic crisis.

The country’s Finance Minister Ali Mahmoud has shot down any hopes that the austerity measures could be reversed by asserting that it was imperative that the nation’s $2.4bn deficit was redressed. In a press conference with the media last week Mahmoud stated: “If international oil prices go up, we'll increase fuel prices. We will not retreat from the decision to lift the subsidies."

As expected, the President Omar Hassan al-Bashir-led government’s response has so far replicated that of regimes ousted by mass revolt during the Arab Spring. The use of teargas and the might of the Police have so far been employed in order to quell the protests. Several activists have also been arrested including the leaders of human rights groups and senior members of opposition parties. The protests, which initially originated in mosques and university campuses located in the Sudanese capital city of Khartoum, has worryingly for the government spread to regional cities.

Al-Bashir who has headed the ruling National Congress Party since 1989 has unsurprisingly batted away suggestions that his government may be toppled by the populist fervour which has seen to the recent overthrow of governments in North Africa and the Middle East. Al-Bashir, who has also been indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur, has labelled the protesters as enemies of the nation and called for the country’s citizens to resist the protesters’ calls for revolt.

Although protests of this scale against the government are unprecedented, observers generally do not consider that the current protests have the capacity to morph into anything similar to those which toppled the Tunisian, Libyan and Egyptian governments amongst others. Needless to say stranger things have happened and the said observers, one is certain, will happily eat their words if the reverse proves to be the case.

WILL THE ARAB SPRING BIRTH THE EAGERLY ANTICIPATED SUB-SAHARAN SUMMER?

The death of Mohammed Bouazizi in Tunisia in January 2011 gave birth to the series of protests and uprisings now globally referred to as the “Arab Spring”. The 26-year-old street vendor set fire to himself in protest following the confiscation of his wares and harassment allegedly suffered at the hands of Tunisian authorities. Mr Bouazizi suffered severe burns to over 90% of his body and later succumbed to the injuries sustained a few weeks later.

It is perhaps certain that no one, not even Mohammed Bouazizi, expected the magnitude of seismic waves which was generated following that one significant act of expression of frustration. It is also no exaggeration to proffer that Mr Bouazizi’s actions have resulted in a permanent shift of the tectonic plates constituting the foundation of the history of the Arab world. The demonstrations and protests which ensued in the aftermath of the death have led to the overthrow of the Tunisian President, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, and the Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarak. Elsewhere in the Arab world, Muammar Gaddafi’s attempts to violently contain peaceful protests in Libya eventually resulted in his overthrow by a group of heavily backed western-assisted rebels who are at present, in the process of forming a transitional government. The uprising does not end there as the leaders of Syria, Yemen and Bahrain are still in the process of containing their own revolutions.

Certainly, the circumstances which were and still are present at the time, and which led to the revolution - economic deprivation, unemployment, poverty, human rights violations and dictatorships - also exist in Sub-Saharan Africa. For instance, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbagogo of Equatorial Guinea has been in charge since 1979 after coming to power by way of a coup. Aside the country making a presence in the top 12 of the Transparency International compiled list of most corrupt countries, the United Nations (UN) have reported that less than half of the population has access to clean drinking water and that 20 percent of children in the country die before the age of five.

The Republic of Chad in the Western part of Africa has fared no better. According to the BBC, the country, which is Africa’s fifth-largest nation, suffers from inadequate infrastructure and internal conflict. The country which has been ruled by Idriss Deby for 21 years and his reign has coincided with unprecedented levels of poverty and poor health, as well as debilitating social and economic conditions. The poor standard of living present in the Republic of Chad is identical to the conditions which have festered in Eritrea during the course of President Isaias Afeweki’s 18 year reign and in Yahya Jammeh’s Gambia during his 17 year term.

Following the overthrow of Ben Ali of Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, there remain 17 African leaders who have served terms of between 11 to 32 years in power. These leaders can also hardly be said to have assumed power by way of free and fair democratic elections. It should however not be forgotten that the people of Zimbabwe and most recently Uganda have engaged in peaceful protests against poor living conditions, spiralling levels of poverty and rising costs of living. Unsurprisingly, these protests have been brutally suppressed by their leaders. However, Laurent Gbagbo’s overthrow as President of the Ivory Coast after over a decade in power is perhaps an indication that Sub-Saharan Africans, like their North African and Arab neighbours, also thirst for the waters of democracy. At present however, it remains to be seen whether the Arab Spring, unwittingly sparked by Mohammed Bouazizi, will birth the eagerly anticipated Sub-Saharan summer.