GUINEA: FIGHTING AND RIOTING ENGULF ANOTHER WEST AFRICAN STATE

The West African country of Guinea appears to have been struck by the curse which has afflicted its West African neighbours of late by succumbing to the political crises which has so far threatened to rip the region apart from itself. Protesters, apparently aping the Arab Spring protests, have taken to the streets over the last couple of days clamouring for the sort of change to which the region has become unfamiliar of late.

 

With the attention of regional diplomats being trained on disturbances afflicting neighbouring Chad, Mali and recently the Ivory Coast, the last thing the regional watchdog ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States) envisaged at this most inopportune of times was the upheaval which has emanated from Guinea and which most certainly will have the effect of encumbering its already stretched to the limit resources.

 

The protests, which started several days ago, is said to have been the result of President Alpha Conde’s failure to call for elections before the 3^rd March 2013 deadline which had been set for that purpose and on which most people had relied. The said elections would have taken place on 12^th May 2013. Unfortunately the waters are further muddied by the usual powder keg concoction of ethnic rivalries which when mixed with politics inevitably results in the combustion with which observers of Africa’s fortunes have become too familiar. In this vein, the protests are of added significance not least because it has now transcended mere political disagreements and appear to be a camouflage for the continued feuding between two of the country’s largest ethnic groups, the Malinke and the Peul, with the latter predominantly forming the opposition and the former currently comprising the bulk of the government’s support.
 

At the time of writing, it is reported that at least a dozen people had been killed and over a hundred had suffered injuries following the escalation of the disturbance. At least one of those reported to have lost their lives and several of the injured were said to have been caught up in a round of protests which then led to the country’s security officials opening fire on an unarmed group of protestors. Worryingly the protests, which started in the capital city of Conakry, is now said to have spread to towns located as far as over 200 miles from the epicentre of the unrest. The fact that legitimate protests have apparently been hijacked by miscreants, as has at times been reported on occasions on which there are anti-government protests, cannot be ignored.

 

The leading opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo has blamed the security forces, and by implication, the President for failing to exercise control over them and for attempting to muzzle the voices of protests through intimidation. Mr Diallo asserted: “The President of the Republic has a crucial responsibility to create peace. He needs to agree to listen to others, and to respect his adversaries.” Although there appears to be no end in sight to the rapidly spreading wave of violence, the rioters will best be advised to pause for thought and gaze at their surroundings, comprising landscapes which have been blighted by the scourge of ethnic violence and bringing along with it destruction which will in turn inevitably result in a passage of time to be forever referred to as ‘the lost decades’. Perhaps a look across the horizon and onto neighbouring West African States may well help steer the fortunes of Guinea away from the quagmire into which it stares at the present moment.

AZERBAIJAN: ARAB SPRING’S TENTACLES EXTEND WESTWARDS

 

Many, for good reason, wondered whether the Arabian revolution would extend across jurisdictions, or would sadly be confined within the borders of the Arab world. Alas, the questions circumventing the minds of the inquisitive, but as yet unasked, have now been answered by the unfolding of recent events in the former Soviet republic.

The country’s sleepy town of Ismailli was the scene of unprecedented violence and rioting which resulted in the destruction of public amenities, buildings and infrastructure. As was the case in the Arab world, the disturbance appears to stem from discontent about the government whom locals have lost faith in. Many feel that the country’s wealth, owing to the abundance of natural gas resources, has failed to filter down to the man on the street, but rather, remains in the hands of a few – the few being people in government or with links to the establishment. Widening inequality, poverty, unemployment and the worsening economic situation, seemingly with no end in sight, hasn’t eased the current state of play. The protesters allegedly called for the resignation of the regional governor, Nizami Alekperov, seemingly attributing the problems to him, presumably as an emanation of the state. Reports emanating from the country indicate that water canons and tear gas were employed by the authorities in order to disperse the riotous crowd.

As has come to be expected from governments in a similar position to that being currently occupied by the Azeris, a senior official was dispatched to extinguish any media-generated speculation to the effect that the Arab Spring is set to claim its next victim. That unwanted task thus fell to Ali Akhmedov, deputy chairman of the Yeni Azerbaijan party which forms the present government. Akhmedov asserted: “I don’t believe that this situation can spread to the other regions as there is no basis for that.” He continued: “There are just some destructive forces inside the country who are interested in the destabilization of the situation, but they are weak.”

Regardless of the government’s attempts to sweep the disturbance under the carpet, the riots, in a country where protests are more or less uncommon, are of significance and probably the biggest threat to the Aliyev dynasty since its assumption of power in the days of the Soviet Union. By way of a fact dissemination exercise, the incumbent is Ilham Aliyev, the son of Heydar Aliyev, who ruled the country for 10 years before being succeeded by his son in 2003. The similarities with the Arab spring don’t end there with reports of further protests being planned by those in support of the Ismailli rioters’ cause with social networking sites such as Facebook, the scourge of totalitarian states and fallen Arab leaders, being used to mobilise protesters.

Unfortunately the Azeri government has in the past shown no hesitation to use force in order to quell public disturbances and one expects the present occasion to be no different, and with elections scheduled for later this year, one anticipates the government to strong arm its people, especially its opponents, into submission. Moreover, Azerbaijan plays a rather strategic and important role in the West’s war on terror and for that reason, the US and its consigliores lack the political will to support any attempts to depose those at the helm of what is essentially the Aliyev personal fiefdom. To be blunt, the Azeri government faces no real threat until the West secures an alternative, as a military base in respect of its Afghanistan operations, to that provided by Azerbaijan. Until then, the West’s attention will remain conveniently diverted away from Azerbaijan’s dictatorial, oppressive and totalitarian regime.

GEORGIA: PRISON ABUSE SCANDAL ROCKS GEORGIA IN LEAD UP TO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili appears to be suffering the same torrid fate which has befallen his incumbent contemporaries in the lead up to presidential elections in their respective countries.

With leadership elections due on October 1, Saakashvili already faced an uphill task to secure re-election, what with the country’s stagnating economy – an experience which is not too dissimilar from the rest of the continent - and its people discontent with a government seen by many to have no qualms about encroaching on their civil liberties and freedom. Unfortunately for Saakashvili and his supporters his problems have been further compounded by recent videos released by his political opponents which show gross abuse of prisoners by the authorities.

As expected the images have drawn the ire of the public and the furore which emanated as a result has failed to dissipate into the ether with the rapidity which Saakashvili seeks. The broadcast of the images by television stations allied with the country’s opposition parties has led to days of protests by individuals who have taken to the streets in their thousands to denounce the authorities.

To his credit Saakashvili has moved to distance himself and his party from the images which show prison authorities indiscriminately beating, allegedly raping, manhandling and hitting prisoners. The chief of Tbilisi prison where the abuse was recorded, his deputies and prison guards with alleged involvement in the debacle have been detained by the authorities. The country’s Interior Minister Bacho Akhalaia resigned earlier in the week and Saakashvili has also this week appointed a new Prisons Minister in Georgy Tugushi following the resignation of the minister in charge of the prisons at the time of the scandal.

Controversy still surrounds the production of the video and how it happened to have been acquired by the media. According to the global news agency Reuters, Saakashvili’s United National Movement party claim that the videos were staged and the recording filmed by guards who had been bribed by “politically motivated persons”. Whatever the origins of the video, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe (COE) have weighed in on the scandal and urged Saakashvili to bring those culpable to justice and also reminded the government of the duty to maintain human rights standards across the nation.

The revelations which surfaced at such a late phase in the presidential campaign comes as a gift to the Georgian Dream coalition led Bidzina Ivanishvili and no doubt has the capacity to significantly hurt Saakashvili’s re-election ambitions although not enough, in the current writer’s opinion, to decimate the 20 percentage points cushion which the United National Movement had over its opponents before the scandal broke and by election day.