MALI: U.N. PONDERS MALI GOVERNMENT’S REQUEST FOR MILITARY INTERVENTION

Last week’s news that the West African country has called on the United Nations (U.N.) to intervene militarily in order to reclaim parts of the country currently controlled by Islamist militants, though welcome, raised several eyebrows and subsequently questions amongst followers of the country’s recent fortunes. The most vital of the questions which have arisen are whether the call for intervention has come too late and secondly, whether the said intervention will achieve its desired aims if approved by the UN.


Recent History

Prior to the unfolding of the events of March of this year, Mali had been hailed by observers as one of the few democratic success stories in Africa. In March of this year however, and borrowing from the Nigerian author Chinua Achebe’s seminal masterpiece, things fell apart when a gang of soldiers initiated a coup d’etat which saw to the overthrow of the nation’s President. A combination of forces, namely Tuareg rebels who have always had an axe to grind with the government following decades of claims of marginalisation, together with various groups of Islamist militants acting jointly and severally launched an operation against the establishment which has resulted in the Northern region of the country being fully under their control. It is also reported that people in that region of the country are now subjected to Sharia law, which is the strictest form of Islam.


Call for Intervention

The call for intervention was said to have been made by way of a letter sent by the Malian government to the U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, the contents of which were revealed by the French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius. In calling for a U.N. resolution under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, under which the U.N. can authorise military interventions, the Malian government stated that terrorists, drug dealers and criminals currently occupy areas of the country and as such it needed the support of an international force “to help the Malian army to reconquer the occupied areas of northern Mali.”

Mali’s request for intervention was met with a rather familiar obstacle in a divided United Nations. At a special summit arranged by the U.N. to address all things Mali-related and held against the background of the recent U.N. General Assembly, the Malian Prime Minister Cheick Modibo Diarra stated: “There is an urgency to act to end the suffering of the people of Mali and to prevent a similar situation that would be even more complicated in the Sahel and the rest of the world.” Diarra’s impassioned plea for assistance was supported by the country’s Colonial Father, France who’s President Francoise Hollande pledged his country’s support to the idea of a potential military action.



Reservations to Calls for Intervention

Whilst France had no reservations in throwing its hat in the ring in support of military intervention, the reverse was the case with the US who appear to be exhibiting more restraint than they have been associated with in recent times, perhaps an indication of their reduced influence in the global politics arena. Hilary Clinton, the country’s Secretary of State insisted that a legitimate government had to be put in place before such an action could be considered. In respect of what can only be described as the multi-dimensional nature of the problems currently facing Mali, Clinton stated: “This is not only a humanitarian crisis; it is a power keg that the international community cannot afford to ignore.” She continued “in the end, only a democratically elected government will have the legitimacy to achieve a negotiated political settlement in northern Mali, end the rebellion and restore the rule of law.”

Clinton’s stance has also received support from the U.N. Secretary General who has also raised reservations regarding the topic of military intervention on the ground that it may further exacerbate the already critical humanitarian crises in the region.


The Future

Although the American call for caution in respect of the potential for military action is comprehended, a legitimate question which then arises is how democratic elections can be held in a country where a sizeable area is controlled by Islamist militants who abhor the concept of democracy and accordingly the principles and ideals associated with it. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly clearer by the day that diplomacy may be futile in salvaging the situation. The July 5 Security Council sanctioned ECOWAS (The Economic Community of West African States) mission which was mandated to apply political means to resolve the conflict hardly made any notable gains despite its credible efforts. Its failure was no doubt significantly handicapped by the difficulty in identifying all the warring factions in order to commence any form of effective negotiations as Al-Qaeda is only but one of the several Islamist militant groups said to be operating in the northern region of Mali.


Sound-off

Whilst the U.N.’s sounds of caution are laudable its prevarication on the same subject has already contributed to the humanitarian crises facing the region and clearly lessons have not been learnt. A rational move at this point would be the authorisation of ECOWAS troops – who have indicated its preparedness to send troops at short notice – in order to quell the flames emanating from the nation’s combustion. Sooner rather than later the U.N.’s leadership will be forced to make the decision it has attempted to circumvent for some time which in sum amounts to whether the benefits of military intervention outweigh the potential of a worsening of the humanitarian crises which has resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of innocent Malians.

GEORGIA: PRISON ABUSE SCANDAL ROCKS GEORGIA IN LEAD UP TO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili appears to be suffering the same torrid fate which has befallen his incumbent contemporaries in the lead up to presidential elections in their respective countries.

With leadership elections due on October 1, Saakashvili already faced an uphill task to secure re-election, what with the country’s stagnating economy – an experience which is not too dissimilar from the rest of the continent - and its people discontent with a government seen by many to have no qualms about encroaching on their civil liberties and freedom. Unfortunately for Saakashvili and his supporters his problems have been further compounded by recent videos released by his political opponents which show gross abuse of prisoners by the authorities.

As expected the images have drawn the ire of the public and the furore which emanated as a result has failed to dissipate into the ether with the rapidity which Saakashvili seeks. The broadcast of the images by television stations allied with the country’s opposition parties has led to days of protests by individuals who have taken to the streets in their thousands to denounce the authorities.

To his credit Saakashvili has moved to distance himself and his party from the images which show prison authorities indiscriminately beating, allegedly raping, manhandling and hitting prisoners. The chief of Tbilisi prison where the abuse was recorded, his deputies and prison guards with alleged involvement in the debacle have been detained by the authorities. The country’s Interior Minister Bacho Akhalaia resigned earlier in the week and Saakashvili has also this week appointed a new Prisons Minister in Georgy Tugushi following the resignation of the minister in charge of the prisons at the time of the scandal.

Controversy still surrounds the production of the video and how it happened to have been acquired by the media. According to the global news agency Reuters, Saakashvili’s United National Movement party claim that the videos were staged and the recording filmed by guards who had been bribed by “politically motivated persons”. Whatever the origins of the video, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe (COE) have weighed in on the scandal and urged Saakashvili to bring those culpable to justice and also reminded the government of the duty to maintain human rights standards across the nation.

The revelations which surfaced at such a late phase in the presidential campaign comes as a gift to the Georgian Dream coalition led Bidzina Ivanishvili and no doubt has the capacity to significantly hurt Saakashvili’s re-election ambitions although not enough, in the current writer’s opinion, to decimate the 20 percentage points cushion which the United National Movement had over its opponents before the scandal broke and by election day.

KENYA: RENEWED VIOLENCE LEADS TO FEARS OF A REPRISAL OF 2007’s DEADLY CONFLICT

Last week’s discovery by the Kenyan authorities of over 150 explosive devices in the country’s capital city of Nairobi indicates that the country’s battle against Islamic militants is far from seeing its end. Close observers of Eastern African affairs recall last year’s Kenyan incursion into Somalia aimed at deterring the Somalia-based Islamist group, al Shabaab, who were alleged to have been behind a spate of terror attacks on Kenyan soil.

Many Kenyans will probably concur with the assertion that its government’s incursion into Somalia, although well intentioned, has been counterproductive at best and its consequences disastrous at worst. The incursion has also resulted in conflict between the country’s Christian and Muslim populations and the recent discovery of explosives will no doubt further compound the distrust between members of both communities.

Tensions were stoked even further last week following the arrest of the Muslim cleric, Abubaker Sharif for his part in inciting violence in the country’s second biggest city Mombasa which led to the deaths of five people. Sharif, a divisive figure who has previous form when it comes to incitement, is alleged to have called on his followers to eliminate senior Islamic figures adjudged to have collaborated with the government, to burn churches and attack police officers.

The spiralling conflict with al Shabaab comes against the background of alarming sectarian violence in Kenya’s coastal regions which have been linked to disputes over resources between pastoralists and settled farmers. Last week’s clashes resulted in the deaths of 11 people and occurred in spite of calls from the country’s leaders, including that of its Prime Minister Raila Odinga, for an end to the violence. Of concern is that the parallel conflicts have the potential to morph into the violent scenes which followed from Kenya’s last presidential elections in December 2007 which led to the deaths of over 1,200 people.

Whilst the government’s attempts to quash the scourge presented by Islamic militants by sanctioning the military exercise in Somalia has been referred to by many as constituting the origin of the present conflict, it is well worth adding that identifying the root cause of the latest violent scenes may not be as simplistic as some would like to think. As was the case in the bloody violence which occurred half a decade ago the fight for limited resources is a major factor and element in this troubling equation which must not be discounted.

Muslim communities who outnumber their Christian contemporaries in the country’s coastal regions complain rather vociferously about losing jobs and land to members of the Christian communities. Adding to these are issues to do with unemployment mostly amongst members of the Muslim community thereby increasing the potential of the radicalisation of youth who feel marginalised and in some cases are reported to have been recruited by the al Shabaab Islamic militia in their battle against the Kenyan government. Perhaps the only certainty in this otherwise uncertain circumstance is that there will be no end to the Kenyan crises until its government adopts a multifaceted approach in confronting its problems as opposed to its current one dimensional modus operandi which fails to address the underlying social, political and economic problems facing its people.

ANGOLA: VOTERS CHOOSE STATUS QUO OVER NEW DAWN

Angola’s President Eduardo Dos Santos appears not be giving up easily in what seemingly has become a 2-man race or contest between himself and Equatorial Guinea’s President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo to be crowned Africa’s longest serving leader.


Election Results

Last week Dos Santos was elected by way of a landslide victory to serve a further five-year term as President. Currently aged 70 and having already led the country for 33 years, Dos Santos will be 75 by the end of his tenure. Early reports indicate that Dos Santos’s MPLA party won about 70 per cent of the votes while the rest was split between opposing parties UNITA and CASA-CE. Although MPLA’s victory was overwhelming this time, it was not as decisive as the 2008 elections where it amassed about 81 per cent of the votes.


Questions and Protests

As we are all too aware, no elections held in Africa passes without controversy and problems. It therefore comes as no surprise that the validity of the elections have been challenged by the government’s opponents. Concerns have been raised over alleged rigged ballots and the transparency of the election process. In an interview with the Reuters news agency following the announcement of the provisional results, a candidate seeking election on the platform of the opposing CASA-CE party William Tonet denounced the elections as “cheating”. Tonet added that the election results amounted to a “declaration of war” by MPLA.

The leaders of the country’s second largest party UNITA have also voiced their intention to challenge the election results. Pre-election, observers will recall that the party’s leader Isaias Samakuva called for the postponement of the elections for another month as a result of what he termed interference in the election process by the ruling MPLA as well as questions raised over the credibility of the country’s national election commission (CNE).


Giant Leaps

The disquiet which has stemmed from the elections should however not detract from the progress, in gargantuan proportions, which the country has made since the end of its 27-year long civil war which devastated the nation. Now Africa’s second largest oil producing country, its oil wealth has served as the fulcrum of its economic transformation. It is reported that the country experienced an average of 15 percent growth in the period between 2002 and 2008. Further and even more impressive is the fact that Angola reported the world’s highest annual average GDP growth at 11 percent between 2001 and 2010.


Sound-off

Unsurprisingly and much like its oil producing African counterparts Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea the oil wealth has failed to trickle down to those who occupy the bottom strata of its 18 million strong population and as a result endemic corruption, patronage, nepotism and poverty thrive below the glamorous face of the country which is most encapsulated by its skyscraper thronged capital, Luanda.

Perhaps in a bid to address these concerns, Dos Santos ran a re-election campaign which had at its centre the promise to reduce poverty and inequality backed by a declaration to invest $17 billion in the country’s energy sector. At the risk of being labelled a cynic or a pessimist, critics of the Dos Santos government have good basis upon which to base their damning indictments of the administration, after all Dos Santos has already had three decades to lead the country to the promised land but all he has delivered, in spite of the considerable resources which the country is blessed, is a nation with enormous social and economic disparities which may only be checked by a change of administration.