SUDAN AND SOUTH SUDAN: LEADERS PROMISE END TO LONG-RUNNING CONFLICT

Amidst the pervading doom and gloom atmosphere generated by the Syrian, Congolese and Middle East conflicts and the corrosive rhetoric emanating from North Korea and the likes of Iran, the Sudanese and South Sudanese governments have somehow colluded to contrive an unlikely silver lining.

 

It no doubt came as a surprise to many when the government of Sudan announced that its leader, the ICC-indicted President Omar al-Bashir was to make a visit to neighbouring South Sudan, a country which split from the Sudan in 2011 following independence and with whom they have been engaged in conflict since the aforementioned split. It was even more of a surprise when President al-Bashir followed through on his promise by visiting South Sudan in the past week. The visit signals a softening and warming in relations between both countries who until 2011 had been engaged in conflict which claimed the lives of an estimated two million people.

 

Recent conflict between both nations was the result of disputes over the ownership of oil rich regions bordering the countries. The dispute threatened to plunge the region into anarchy, a state from which it has hardly recovered following decades of fighting, but for the inspired intervention of the much maligned African Union (AU) who stepped in in time to prevent the escalation of hostilities. A demilitarised zone, akin to that in place in the Korean peninsula, established in March of this year is the legacy of the recent conflict.

Whether the pleasantries and niceties exchanged between both countries’ leaders at last week’s meeting will become a permanent feature of their relationship largely remains to be seen although if their leaders’ statements are anything to be relied upon then one may well surmise that a new dawn is set to spring upon the North African terrain. For his part, al-Bashir proffered, “We won’t go back to war. President (Salva) Kiir and I agreed that the war was too long.” His counterpart Kiir, also accepted an invitation to pay al-Bashir a return visit.

It is to the credit of both nations and the AU that the threat of war has seemingly been extinguished, albeit temporarily. The symbiotic relationship between both is however one which has been overlooked as constituting a catalyst for the improvement in relations between the countries. The production of oil, a resource which accounts for a substantial part of both countries’ economies, virtually ceased almost throughout 2012 and which, as expected, has had a devastating impact on their economies. For all the ills associated with oil, human rights abuses, totalitarian regimes, rouge states et al, oil, for once, should be given credit for perhaps saving the lives of innocent civilians who would no doubt have become engulfed in another senseless conflict. Both countries’ fortunes, like that of twins, are inextricably linked and as such their leaders, Kiir and al-Bashir, will do well to heed the mantra “together we stand and divided we fall”, as only then will the cessation of hostilities be rooted in permanence.

VENEZUELA: EVEN IN DEATH, CHAVEZ’S SHADOW LOOMS LARGE

Now that the dust has settled, or to an extent settled, following the death of, for want of a better word, the behemoth of South American and perhaps global politics, Hugo Chavez, the country is now in that most perilous of situations which has confronted many a nation in the aftermath of a revolution. As tears begin to dry up and the demand for tissue paper to wipe the same off Venezuelan faces recedes, the reality of a post-Chavez Venezuela gradually dawns upon its people not least owing to the rapidly approaching election date of 14^th April which seems to have snuck up on followers of South American politics with a fair degree of stealth.

While Nicolas Maduro, the Chavez-anointed acting President and favourite to bag the election attempts and fails to ape the awe inspiring persona of the late great Chavez, his rival Henrique Capriles, despite being behind in the polls, appears to be making some headway, albeit while at the same time acquiring enemies at the rate of knots in the run-up to elections.

 

Capriles’s modus operandi is one which principally consists of highlighting the numerous claims of government excesses and corruption with which its government officials are currently bedevilled. Not letting up on his attacks, perhaps having learnt a thing or two about the attack dog style of the erstwhile President Chavez, Capriles attended several rallies organised by his supporters in which he wasted no time in ‘sticking it’ to his foes. Referring to claims of endemic corruption within government circles, Capriles told the partisan crowd: “They talk of socialism, but it’s on the surface only. Look how those well-connected ones live, what they wear, what cars they go round in, how many bodyguards they have.” Ratcheting up the rhetoric, Capriles topped things off by labelling his opponents “skin-deep socialists”.

 

Whether this newly unveiled firebrand persona will be enough to see Capriles through to victory is anybody’s guess although recent polls show that Capriles’s Democratic Union Party still lag behind the ruling Socialist Party. For Capriles, the difficulty lies in convincing sufficient numbers of the electorate that the country requires a movement away from Chavez’s imbued socialist principles and ideals which has served the country’s ordinary folk so well in recent years to the centrist position which Capriles’s party advocates. While Capriles is no doubt a very able politician, he is perhaps finding that his toughest battle is not against the incumbent Maduro but against a dead man in the form of the indefatigable figure of Chavez whose ghost lurks in the background. The reality therefore is such that even if Maduro does no campaigning from today’s date until the date of the election, the groundswell of emotion following Chavez’s death is more than likely to see him through to the finish line, proving that even in death, Chavez remains the force of nature which he certainly was in lifetime.