ARMENIA: NO CHANGE EXPECTED TO STATUS QUO FOLLOWING ELECTIONS

Reports suggest that no surprises should be expected from Armenian Presidential elections which are to be held tomorrow. President Serzh Sarksyan, the handpicked successor of former President Robert Kocharian, who is coming to the end of his first five-year term in power is on course to further solidify his stranglehold over Armenian politics if he gains the more than 60 per cent of the popular vote of which he has been projected by election opinion pollsters operating within the country. The 60 per cent tally, if reports are to be believed, will see Mr. Sarksyan win a greater percentage of the votes than he did in 2008.

 

The lead up to the elections has been plagued by allegations of electoral malpractice, fraud and lack of transparency in the system. The lack of confidence in the system, allied with further concerns about the credibility of the elections have inevitably led to fears of low voter turnout, the result of boycotts by eligible voters. These worries have been recognised by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe who stated, following last month’s visit to the country, that some of the major political parties which had been “strongly expected to present Presidential candidates, chose not to do so because of their lack of trust in the conduct of the election.”

 

It would be unfair to highlight the pre-election difficulties facing the nation without noting that the country has successfully circumvented the wide scale disturbance which ensued in the course of the last Presidential elections held in February 2008. Nevertheless, recent elections have been tainted by the rather unsavoury assassination attempt on one of the election candidates, Paruyr Hayrikyan, who was shot in the shoulder on 31^st January 2013. Luckily the bullet missed Mr. Hayrikyan’s vitals and he has lived to tell the proverbial tale. Further controversy and questions have also been raised about the credibility of the elections with one candidate, Arman Melikyan boycotting the election on the basis that the results had already been predetermined, and another, Andrias Ghukasyan, embarking on a hunger strike and seeking the annulment of the incumbent’s candidacy on account of alleged malpractice.

 

The country, which won independence from its parent nation the Soviet Union in 1991, has failed to live up to the promise which many believed it once possessed pre-independence with poverty and unemployment remaining rife and without any effective programmes being devised by the government to tackle these twin ills. Its economic situation has not been eased by long running conflicts with its neighbours, namely Turkey and Azerbaijan, which has in effect resulted in the imposition of economic blockades which has hampered its growth and development.

 

Its conflict with Turkey emanates from Turkey’s refusal to acknowledge allegations of genocide perpetrated by their troops against ethnic Armenians between 1915 and 1917. Armenia’s dispute with Azerbaijan on the other hand, is the result of claims over the border region of Nagorno-Karabakh. A fragile ceasefire has remained in place since 1994’s ceasefire between both nations. Against the background of both internal and external turmoil facing the nation, one hopes that next week’s election passes off peacefully and without incident. If this occurs, it may well set the country on the road to achieving the promises which many felt it held pre-independence and immediately after its independence in 1991.

 

NIGERIA: THE FIGHT AGAINST POLIO SUFFERS SIGNIFICANT SETBACK

Worryingly, one has become rather immune to horror stories emanating from Africa’s most populous country such that news of the killing of nine health workers said to be administering polio vaccines in northern Nigeria has not come as a shock.

 

Boko Haram: The History

 

Regular visitors to the 1worldinternational weblog will be aware of the origins of Boko Haram, the terrorist group with Nigerian origins which has over the last few years masterminded attacks against the Nigerian government, public infrastructure, civilians and churches. In a previous article entitled “Boko Haram: The New Al-Qaeda?”, 1worldinternational highlighted the threat posed by the group. The article also covered fears raised by the U.S. about the Nigerian government’s inability to deal with the insurgency and the prospect that the national problem may spiral into an international concern.
 

As always, the Boko Haram Islamist sect which opposes polio vaccination programmes, for what many term the misguided reason that it is a Western-led ploy to inflict AIDS on Muslim children and cause infertility within that cross-section of the Nigerian society, have been blamed for the killings.  This week’s attack follows a similar attack against aid workers in Pakistan who had been administering polio medicine to those most prone to the disease. Police spokesman Magaji Musa explained: “Gunmen on bikes opened fire on a health centre in the Hotoro district killing seven, while an attack on the Zaria Road area of the city claimed two lives.” Musa continued: “They were working for the state government giving out polio vaccinations at the time of the attack.”

 

Blow to Worldwide Fight against Polio

 

The latest attacks on health personnel in Pakistan and Nigeria, allied with the continued threats to the lives of aid workers in these regions, is indeed a massive blow to worldwide efforts currently geared towards the eradication of the disease. In June of last year, 1worldinternational reported, in an article titled ‘Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) Declares Last Stand against Polio’, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative’s launch of an emergency action plan following fears of a resurgence of the disease in countries where the disease was thought to have been eradicated. By way of information, the GPEI was formed in 1988 and was spearheaded by the WHO, Rotary International, the United States Center for Disease Control and Prevention and UNICEF. It is also supported by polio-affected and donor governments, private foundations, development banks, humanitarian and non-governmental organizations, corporate partners and more than 20 million volunteers.
 

It is perhaps no coincidence that the countries in which the most stubborn and obdurate opposition to the administration of medicine emanates are those – Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria -  in which polio remains endemic to levels needed to prevent the transmission of the disease. The December 2012 and January 2013 attacks by alleged Taliban-linked militants in Pakistan is indication of the continued lack of understanding which is required from leaders of these communities if the Ban Ki-moon led quest to “stamp out polio for good” is to be achieved in our lifetime.

 

Sound-off

 

In the circumstances, the GPEI and those leading the fight against the dissease are left with essentially three options. The first and least favoured is continuing with the same course of action, i.e. sending in aid workers against the background of the real and severe risks of attacks on their person. The second and middle of the road option entails praying and hoping that the military might of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and the Nigerian government will prevail over those of the Taliban, its allies and the Boko Haram military sect. The third and most preferable option, and which in the writer’s view is most likely to yield the most dividends, is that of engaging and educating the opponents of the vaccination programme about the advantages of immunization to future generations of Muslim children. Perhaps this will, to some extent, assuage fears which manifests itself in the form of misguided views in respect of the aims and objectives of the programme.
 

In this regard, charity organisations who operate within the Islamic world such as the Red Crescent may act as mediators and/or negotiators owing to the fact that they may not face the same allegations levelled aganst Western-backed organisations and aid workers which is that they are acting as agents of the West and that they are essentially, propagating and cultivating a Western-backed agenda. Unfortunately, without the co-operation of the current opponents of the vaccination programme, who also wield such overarching power and influence over the regions in which it is most prevalent, the battle against the disease will be one with which future generations will be saddled.