SYRIA: THE UNSOLVED PROBLEM

On Saturday, November 5, the Reuters News Agency reported that clashes between Syrian government forces and protesters had resulted in the deaths of at least 5 civilians and injuries to dozens in the city of Homs. The continuing episodes of violence perpetrated by the Syrian government is starkly at odds with its promise to end attacks on protesters dissatisfied with President Bashar al-Assad’s administration over his failure to implement reforms in the country. The deaths on Saturday bring the total number of civilians killed since Tuesday to at least 82.

Followers of the Syrian uprising will recall that earlier in the week, President al-Assad’s government endorsed the five-point plan devised by the 22-nation Arab League which was aimed at bringing about a cessation of hostilities in the country. The peace plan in Cairo resulted in the following agreements being reached:-

• That there shall be an end to violence and killings
• That the Syrian government shall grant access to Arab and international media to monitor the situation.
• That the government shall release prisoners recently detained
• That the Damascus government shall remove all military equipment from Syrian cities
• That the government and opposition shall engage in dialogue within 2 weeks.

The Secretary-General of the Arab league, Nabil Elaraby fears that the violence which has resulted in the aftermath of the Arab League devised plan “would lead to catastrophic results for the situation in Syria and the region as a whole.” He added: “the Syrian government needs to take immediate steps to protect civilians.” Although the government has not released a press statement in defence of these latest actions, it is however inevitable that it will claim that its actions are aimed at Islamic militants and organised fighters as it has done in the past to justify its abhorrent use of force against civilians. The government’s attempts to crush protests around the country have led to the deaths of an estimated 3,000 people according to the United Nations.

Observers recall the sense of optimism which greeted President al-Assad’s assumption of leadership of the country and the ruling Baath party in 2000 following the iron-fisted 30-year rule of his father, Hafez al-Assad who spared no rod in quashing dissent. President al-Assad’s first deeds in power included sanctioning the release of political prisoners and easing media restrictions. However the air of change expected to have been ushered in by Assad junior never materialised, hence the 7-month long protests.

Following the failure of the Arab plan less than a week after its birth, stakeholders in the Middle East and the international community will surely be wracking their brains over the Syrian problem. There is certainly no appetite for NATO or international military action in the aftermath of the Libyan bombing raids undertaken by NATO. China and Russia, the latter with its significant business interests in Syria, namely arms sales, are likely to veto any moves for intervention in Syria as was the case early last month when they rejected a UN Security Council Resolution condemning the violence in Syria. To date, the US has taken a back seat in attempts to curb the violence with the sum total of its engagement being President Obama’s plea for President al-Assad to “step aside”. Any success in ensuring a stop to the violence in Syria will certainly require greater US and UN involvement.

It was hoped that the continued violence would result in the defection of Syrian Generals close to the president; however this has failed to happen, as such alternatives need to be considered. Therefore the UN approval of an observer mission and human rights monitors to operate in Syria in order to monitor and assess first-hand the claims and allegations of violence and human rights abuse by the Damascus government may yet be a proposal palatable to China and Russia who fear another Libya. To this end, the US and the other members of the Council must defuse the fears of the Russiana and Chinese by stressing that the observer mission is no prelude to the military action they fear may result if they agree to sanction a resolution regarding the Syrian problem.

In addition, the recently established Syrian National Council, a conglomerate of seven opposition groups akin to the Libyan National Transitional Council, was formed to create a singular voice for opponents of the Syrian government. Its Charter advocates press freedom, greater democracy, and political pluralism amongst others. The group led by Burham Ghalian, should be provided additional support and stronger backing, financial and otherwise by the international community. This backing will enable opponents to finance broadcasts, produce publications, and utilise social media in rallying opponents of the government. The backing will no doubt prop up and encourage the opposition in the face of attacks by the government.

Perhaps more effectively, sanctions and trade embargoes imposed by the UN, the EU, or Syria’s trade partners should be considered as they may be the most successful tool in bringing the government to its knees. The European Union ban on imports which commences in November will affect oil and gas export revenue, products which are said to account for a significant part of the Syrian government’s revenue. The ban is expected to deepen the Syrian economic crises which began following the government’s attempts to forcefully quell peaceful protests. Failing these, it is inevitable that the violence brought upon the Syrian people by its leaders will continue until the day the Chinese and Russians decide to put the interests of ordinary Syrians above that of its business interests.