The recent renewal of hostilities between forces loyal to the President of Yemen, Mr Ali Abdullah Saleh and demonstrators protesting against the government have led to fears of further instability in this already fragile region of the world. The clashes on 24th and 25th December led to the deaths of 9 people and saw dozens injured by government security forces who opened fire on demonstrators in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa. The government attacks were said to have been led by military units overseen by the nephew and son of Mr Saleh. The recent deaths add to the unofficial figures of hundreds and thousands of people who have been killed and injured respectively in clashes in the major cities of Sanaa, Taiz and Aden since protests began in January 2011.
History
The first rays of the Arab spring hit Yemen on 27th January 2011 when protesters took to the streets and other cities in the Southern cities of the country demanding an end to President Saleh’s 33 year reign. The interceding months have seen a state of emergency been imposed in the country and the defection of senior army officials. In April, President Saleh was injured in an attack on his presidential compound forcing him to leave the country temporarily to seek treatment in Saudi Arabia.
The Deal
Following Mr Saleh’s return to the country on 23rd September 2011, the 6 Arab countries which make up the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and the UN brokered a deal in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia which amongst others entailed that Mr Saleh was to relinquish power 3 months after agreeing the deal. The agreement was signed on 23rd November 2011.
Terms of the Deal
• Vice-President, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi will form a power-sharing government within 14 days of signature of the deal.
• The opposition coalition will nominate a Prime Minister.
• The Vice-President will negotiate the demilitarisation of the city of Sanaa.
• President Saleh will relinquish full control in early February 2012, 90 days after signing the deal.
• The Vice-President will be elected President and oversee constitutional and parliamentary reforms.
• President Saleh and his allies will have immunity from prosecution.
Latest Clashes
The deal was expected to usher in a period of stability following the year-long episode of skirmishes and violence which has seen hundreds killed. The latest clashes appear to have resulted from fears that President Saleh will renege on the agreement to step down from power as was the case in June 2011. The protesters have also demanded that the acting leader and the country’s former Vice-President, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, who is seen as the puppet of the outgoing leader, should resign. The protesters have also voiced concerns about the fact that the agreement, the terms of which have been covered above, entitles Mr Saleh to immunity from prosecution. The protesters have called for the immunity to be revoked.
Saleh’s vows to leave
In the aftermath of the latest clashes, Mr Saleh has been forced to publicly deny any intentions of reneging on the deal. Mr Saleh stated: “I will go to the USA not for treatment, because I’m fine, but to get away from attention, cameras, and allow the unity government to prepare properly for elections”. He added: “I’ll be there for several days, but I’ll return because I won’t leave my people and comrades who have been steadfast for 11 months,” he said. “I’ll withdraw from political work and go into the street as part of the opposition.” Mr Saleh also urged the country’s neighbours to assist Yemenis in establishing law and order in the country. Mr Saleh continued: “An unstable Yemen means an unstable region. So protect the security, unity and stability of Yemen. Neighbour states, its security is yours.”
Fears of civil strife
The latest skirmishes are the last thing the Arab world’s poorest nation needs at this time, not least because it is bedevilled with other problems relating to poverty, high unemployment rates, soaring food prices, oil and water scarcity issues. Added to these is sectarian violence between fighters within the Shia and Sunni communities and attacks against the government by fighters linked to al-Qaeda. Issues are also complicated by a rebellion by militants from the southern part of the country seeking the reestablishment of their own nation which existed pre-unification in 1990.
Sound-off
Yemen is of strategic importance for several reasons, namely its geographical proximity to the gulf’s major oil fields and major shipping lanes in the Arabian and Red seas. It has also been instrumental in providing a base in the west’s fight against al-Qaeda. Recent clashes will not only affect these but will also lead to a flood of refugees and further instability in a region still recovering from the aftershocks caused by the Arab world’s recent awakening. Mr Saleh’s planned February/March 2012 exit is to be watched closely. Needless to say, the seed of political impasse planted by Mr Saleh and his affiliates will swiftly germinate into civil war if he fails to follow through on his promise to leave as agreed.
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