AZERBAIJAN: ARAB SPRING’S TENTACLES EXTEND WESTWARDS

 

Many, for good reason, wondered whether the Arabian revolution would extend across jurisdictions, or would sadly be confined within the borders of the Arab world. Alas, the questions circumventing the minds of the inquisitive, but as yet unasked, have now been answered by the unfolding of recent events in the former Soviet republic.

The country’s sleepy town of Ismailli was the scene of unprecedented violence and rioting which resulted in the destruction of public amenities, buildings and infrastructure. As was the case in the Arab world, the disturbance appears to stem from discontent about the government whom locals have lost faith in. Many feel that the country’s wealth, owing to the abundance of natural gas resources, has failed to filter down to the man on the street, but rather, remains in the hands of a few – the few being people in government or with links to the establishment. Widening inequality, poverty, unemployment and the worsening economic situation, seemingly with no end in sight, hasn’t eased the current state of play. The protesters allegedly called for the resignation of the regional governor, Nizami Alekperov, seemingly attributing the problems to him, presumably as an emanation of the state. Reports emanating from the country indicate that water canons and tear gas were employed by the authorities in order to disperse the riotous crowd.

As has come to be expected from governments in a similar position to that being currently occupied by the Azeris, a senior official was dispatched to extinguish any media-generated speculation to the effect that the Arab Spring is set to claim its next victim. That unwanted task thus fell to Ali Akhmedov, deputy chairman of the Yeni Azerbaijan party which forms the present government. Akhmedov asserted: “I don’t believe that this situation can spread to the other regions as there is no basis for that.” He continued: “There are just some destructive forces inside the country who are interested in the destabilization of the situation, but they are weak.”

Regardless of the government’s attempts to sweep the disturbance under the carpet, the riots, in a country where protests are more or less uncommon, are of significance and probably the biggest threat to the Aliyev dynasty since its assumption of power in the days of the Soviet Union. By way of a fact dissemination exercise, the incumbent is Ilham Aliyev, the son of Heydar Aliyev, who ruled the country for 10 years before being succeeded by his son in 2003. The similarities with the Arab spring don’t end there with reports of further protests being planned by those in support of the Ismailli rioters’ cause with social networking sites such as Facebook, the scourge of totalitarian states and fallen Arab leaders, being used to mobilise protesters.

Unfortunately the Azeri government has in the past shown no hesitation to use force in order to quell public disturbances and one expects the present occasion to be no different, and with elections scheduled for later this year, one anticipates the government to strong arm its people, especially its opponents, into submission. Moreover, Azerbaijan plays a rather strategic and important role in the West’s war on terror and for that reason, the US and its consigliores lack the political will to support any attempts to depose those at the helm of what is essentially the Aliyev personal fiefdom. To be blunt, the Azeri government faces no real threat until the West secures an alternative, as a military base in respect of its Afghanistan operations, to that provided by Azerbaijan. Until then, the West’s attention will remain conveniently diverted away from Azerbaijan’s dictatorial, oppressive and totalitarian regime.