AZERBAIJAN: ARAB SPRING’S TENTACLES EXTEND WESTWARDS

 

Many, for good reason, wondered whether the Arabian revolution would extend across jurisdictions, or would sadly be confined within the borders of the Arab world. Alas, the questions circumventing the minds of the inquisitive, but as yet unasked, have now been answered by the unfolding of recent events in the former Soviet republic.

The country’s sleepy town of Ismailli was the scene of unprecedented violence and rioting which resulted in the destruction of public amenities, buildings and infrastructure. As was the case in the Arab world, the disturbance appears to stem from discontent about the government whom locals have lost faith in. Many feel that the country’s wealth, owing to the abundance of natural gas resources, has failed to filter down to the man on the street, but rather, remains in the hands of a few – the few being people in government or with links to the establishment. Widening inequality, poverty, unemployment and the worsening economic situation, seemingly with no end in sight, hasn’t eased the current state of play. The protesters allegedly called for the resignation of the regional governor, Nizami Alekperov, seemingly attributing the problems to him, presumably as an emanation of the state. Reports emanating from the country indicate that water canons and tear gas were employed by the authorities in order to disperse the riotous crowd.

As has come to be expected from governments in a similar position to that being currently occupied by the Azeris, a senior official was dispatched to extinguish any media-generated speculation to the effect that the Arab Spring is set to claim its next victim. That unwanted task thus fell to Ali Akhmedov, deputy chairman of the Yeni Azerbaijan party which forms the present government. Akhmedov asserted: “I don’t believe that this situation can spread to the other regions as there is no basis for that.” He continued: “There are just some destructive forces inside the country who are interested in the destabilization of the situation, but they are weak.”

Regardless of the government’s attempts to sweep the disturbance under the carpet, the riots, in a country where protests are more or less uncommon, are of significance and probably the biggest threat to the Aliyev dynasty since its assumption of power in the days of the Soviet Union. By way of a fact dissemination exercise, the incumbent is Ilham Aliyev, the son of Heydar Aliyev, who ruled the country for 10 years before being succeeded by his son in 2003. The similarities with the Arab spring don’t end there with reports of further protests being planned by those in support of the Ismailli rioters’ cause with social networking sites such as Facebook, the scourge of totalitarian states and fallen Arab leaders, being used to mobilise protesters.

Unfortunately the Azeri government has in the past shown no hesitation to use force in order to quell public disturbances and one expects the present occasion to be no different, and with elections scheduled for later this year, one anticipates the government to strong arm its people, especially its opponents, into submission. Moreover, Azerbaijan plays a rather strategic and important role in the West’s war on terror and for that reason, the US and its consigliores lack the political will to support any attempts to depose those at the helm of what is essentially the Aliyev personal fiefdom. To be blunt, the Azeri government faces no real threat until the West secures an alternative, as a military base in respect of its Afghanistan operations, to that provided by Azerbaijan. Until then, the West’s attention will remain conveniently diverted away from Azerbaijan’s dictatorial, oppressive and totalitarian regime.

AZERBAIJAN: A NATION ON THE EDGE

It was reported in the past week that the country’s most popular human rights activist and newspaper editor, Khilal Mamedov, had been arrested by the Azeri authorities on alleged charges of drug possession. Azerbaijan police officials were said to have found 5.8 grams of heroin on Mamedov’s person while 28.3 grams of the substance was found in his residence. If convicted Mamedov faces three to 12 years imprisonment.


Mamedov’s Background

Mamedov of course gained notoriety as one of the creators of the “Who are you? Come on, goodbye?” video which went viral in May of this year on Twitter and was then adopted by Russian Anti-Vladimir Putin groups as their campaigns’ theme tune. Mamedov has championed the cause of the Talysh, who are a minority ethnic group in Southern Azerbaijan, a region which borders northern Iran. The Talysh are said to be often marginalised by and not adequately represented by the Baku – the country’s administrative capital – based government. An attempt by the Talysh to secede from the Baku government in 1993 was quelled by the authorities.


The Government’s Ulterior Motives

The human rights group, Institute for Peace and Democracy (IPD) has denounced the arrest of Mamedov calling it a politically motivated act on the part of the government. The IPD appear to suggest that the arrest is intrinsically linked to Mamedov’s human rights activism. Leila Yunus, the organisation’s head, in calling for the release of Mamedov stated: “Khilal Mamedov had authority among the Talysh minority, and officially Baku doesn't favour them." She added: “His arrest is a direct pressure on national minorities in Azerbaijan.”

The fears of human rights activists that the arrest is politically motivated are justified as the government has previous form in terms of stifling voices of protest. Mamedov’s newspaper’s previous editor, Tolishi Sado died in prison in 2010, two years into his 10-year prison sentence for allegedly spying for Iran, charges which most observers denounce as trumped up at best and fantasist at worst.


Government’s Defence

The government for its part has of course denied that the arrest was in any way linked to Mamedov’s activism. The Azeri Interior Ministry deputy spokesperson Ekhsan Zaidov informed the press in the aftermath of the arrest that it had no connection to the protest video or Mamedov’s professional activity, that is his human rights campaigns. Rest assured, the government’s protestations have mostly fallen on the deaf ears of those it seeks to convince otherwise about the reasons for the arrest of the prominent human rights campaigner.


A Government of Contradiction

The proverbial giving with one hand whilst taking away with the other seems to apply to the Azeri government’s recent actions. On the same week on which Mamedov appears to have been made the subject of trumped up charges, the Ilham Aliyev-led government granted amnesty to about 64 prisoners and human rights activists. Aliyev is currently serving a second term as President following an election victory in October 2008, an election which was boycotted by the main opposition parties and which many Western observers denounced at the time as fundamentally flawed. A referendum held in March 2009 effectively removed the constitutional limit on the number of terms which an acting President could serve thus paving the way for Aliyev to be ‘President for Life’.


Sound-off

What remains clear is that despite the occasional overtures made by Aliyev to placate his Western critics such as sanctioning the release of some unjustly held prisoners, his assault on human rights and the concept’s proponents show no signs of abating in the immediate future. The regime may have silenced Sado and is presently on its way to silencing Mamedov but what the government appears to underestimate is the hydra-like nature of the Azeri opposition which defies any easy solution.